Can international migration forecasting be improved? The case of Australia

Migration Letters

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Field Value
Title Can international migration forecasting be improved? The case of Australia
Creator Wilson, Tom
Subject Demography; Geography
Net overseas migration; forecast error; migration forecasts; combining methods; Australia
Description In the first decade of the current century Australia experienced a huge increase in net international (overseas) migration. All demographic forecasts failed to predict this change. The aim of this paper is to assess past net overseas migration forecasts for Australia to quantify the extent of the forecasting challenge, and suggest ways in which improvements might be made. Official net overseas migration forecasts for the past four decades were assessed against subsequently published migration estimates. Mostly they proved highly inaccurate, both for individual years and cumulatively over longer periods. It is suggested that: (1) greater use be made of a detailed migration data source which provides migration estimates by visa/citizenship category, and (2) a combined migration forecasting approach, which draws strength from several complementary methods, is developed. Progress in these two areas offers the potential to improve the accuracy and utility of Australias overseas migration forecasts.
Publisher Transnational Press London
Contributor none
Date 2017-05-01
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Peer-reviewed Article
Research paper
Format application/pdf
Source Migration Letters; Vol 14, No 2 (2017); 285-299
Language eng

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