Modeling Dynamic System for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Maros District

Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences

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Field Value
 
Title Modeling Dynamic System for Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Maros District
 
Creator Salam, Ilham
Arsunan Arsin, A.
Wahyu, Atjo
Bintara Birawida, Agus
Syam, Aminuddin
Mallongi, Anwar
Palutturi, Sukri
Agushybana, Farid
Aisyah, Aisyah
Yani, Ahmad
Akbar Nurdin, Muhammad
Elisafitri, Rezki
 
Subject DHF
Dynamic Model
ISM
 
Description BACKGROUND: Efforts to control the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have been carried out intensively, however, there is no significant reduction in the number of DHF sufferers. Meanwhile, the predictive model is expected to be an early warning to anticipate the incidence of DHF.


AIM: Therefore, this study aims to determine the dynamic model for predicting dengue fever incidence in Maros Regency from 2020 to 2040.


METHODS: This study used the research and development (R and D) method with a dynamic systems approach. The study was conducted in Maros Regency and the data on dengue cases in Maros Regency from 2014 to 2018 were used as samples. Meanwhile, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was used to determine policy scenarios in reducing dengue cases while the analysis of the dynamic model of dengue fever was conducted using the Powersim program.


RESULTS: The critical elements of DHF prevention in the Maros Regency include the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and outreach. Furthermore, the prediction of the average incidence of dengue fever from 2020 to 2040 has decreased based on dynamic model simulations by applying the Jumantik scenario (46.8%), 3M Plus (61.17%), early warning systems (74.4%), counseling (52.12%), and the combined scenario (97.87%).

CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of dengue fever in the Maros Regency is prevented and controlled by the combination of the Jumantik program, 3M Plus, early warning systems, and counseling.
 
Publisher Scientific Foundation SPIROSKI, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
 
Date 2021-10-11
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://oamjms.eu/index.php/mjms/article/view/7098
10.3889/oamjms.2021.7098
 
Source Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences; Vol. 9 No. E (2021): E - Public Health; 901-905
1857-9655
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://oamjms.eu/index.php/mjms/article/view/7098/6153
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Ilham Salam, A. Arsunan Arsin, Atjo Wahyu, Agus Bintara Birawida, Aminuddin Syam, Anwar Mallongi, Sukri Palutturi, Farid Agushybana, Aisyah Aisyah, Ahmad Yani, Muhammad Akbar Nurdin, Rezki Elisafitri (Author)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
 

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