Short-term Forecasting of Cumulative Confirmed Covid-19 Cases Pandemic in Somalia

Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education

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Title Short-term Forecasting of Cumulative Confirmed Covid-19 Cases Pandemic in Somalia
Creator Ali, Dahir Abdi
Sani, Muhammad
Subject COVID-19
Exponential smoothing
Holt’s linear trend
Description Somalia has recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case and first death case on March 16, and April 08, 2020, respectively. Since its arrival, it had infected 2,603 people and took the lives of 88 people while 577 patients were recovered as of 14 June, 2020. To fight this pandemic, the government requires to make the necessary plans accordingly. To plan effectively, the government needs to answer this question: what will be the effect of Covid-19 cases in the country? To answer this question accurately and objectively, forecasting the spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases will be vital. To this regard, this paper provides real times forecasts of Covid-19 cases employing Holt's linear trend model without seasonality. Provided that the data employed is accurate and the past pattern of the disease will continue in the future, this model is powerful to produce real time forecasts in the future with some degree of uncertainty. With the help of these forecasts, the government can make evidence based decisions by utilizing the scarce resource available at its disposal.
Publisher Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia
Date 2021-09-27
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Peer-reviewed Article
Format application/pdf
Source Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education; Vol. 3 No. 2 (2021): Online First; 211-216
Language eng
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Dahir Abdi Ali, Muhammad Sani (Author)

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