Modeling Behavioural Evolution as Social Predictor for the Coronavirus Contagion and Immunization in Nigeria

Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education

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Field Value
 
Title Modeling Behavioural Evolution as Social Predictor for the Coronavirus Contagion and Immunization in Nigeria
 
Creator Ojugo, Arnold Adimabua
Eboka, Andrew Okonji
 
Subject Coronavirus
COVID-19
graph-model
SIS
SIR
epidemiology
pandemic
 
Description Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic from China in 2019, it has left the world leaders in great confusing due to its fast-paced propagation and spread that has left infected a world population of over Eleven Million persons with over five hundred and thirty four thousand deaths and counting with the United States of America, Brazil, Russia, India and Peru in the lead on these death toll. The pandemic whose increased mortality rate is targeted at ‘aged’ citizens, patients with low immunology as well as patients with chronic diseases and underlying health conditions. Study models covid-19 pandemic via a susceptible-infect-remove actor-based graph, with covid-19 virus as the innovation diffused within the social graph. We measure the rich connective patterns of the actor-based graph, and explore personal feats as they influence other nodes to adopt or reject an innovation. Results shows current triggers (lifting of inter-intra state migration bans) and shocks (exposure to covid-19 by migrants) will lead to late widespread majority adoption of 23.8-percent. At this, the death toll will climb from between 4.43-to-5.61-percent to over 12%.
 
Publisher Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia
 
Date 2021-09-23
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Peer-reviewed Article
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://jurnal.ahmar.id/index.php/asci/article/view/130
10.35877/454RI.asci130
 
Source Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education; Vol. 3 No. 2 (2021): Online First; 135-144
2685-0591
 
Language eng
 
Relation http://jurnal.ahmar.id/index.php/asci/article/view/130/116
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Arnold Adimabua Ojugo, Andrew Okonji Eboka (Author)
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0
 

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