Assignment of probabilities and collective action as a winning strategy in the coupon lottery

Ciencias Administrativas

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Title Assignment of probabilities and collective action as a winning strategy in the coupon lottery
Asignación de probabilidades y acción colectiva como estrategia ganadora en la lotería de Cupones
 
Creator Casanova Leal, Hugo
 
Subject collective action
lotteries
probabilities.
acción colectiva
lotería
probabilidades.
 
Description In this article, we address the gamblers’ belief according to which, when the coupon lotteries jackpot accumulates, sales tend to increase, as there would be a greater motivation to participate in the game. Although classical economists believe that this is an irrational behavior, for being non-strategic, the study fails to rule out the validity of this belief; it finds two behaviors in gamblers that, in gaming language, would be an individual and a collective action; the first one being random, while the second one would place the odds in favor of the gamblers. The study was performed on forty lottery draws in Venezuela in the year 2000 and, even though the data are already obsolete with respect to accounting, they are not obsolete with respect to gambling, since the gamblers’ belief survives with current data. In order to contrast this belief with the empirical evidence, current statistical techniques applied to the game model were used and the a priori and a posteriori probabilities of the draws were calculated. The findings show that, paradoxically, the initial probabilities are in favor of the gamblers, but the market itself reverses these probabilities against them, thus forcing the collective action.
En este artículo abordamos la creencia de los apostadores según la cual, cuando el premio mayor de las loterías de cupones se acumula, las ventas tienden a incrementarse, pues habría una motivación mayor para participar en el juego. Si bien los economistas clásicos creen que esto es un comportamiento irracional, por no estratégico, el estudio no descarta la validez de esta creencia; halla dos comportamientos en los apostadores que, en lenguaje de juegos, serían una acción individual y otra colectiva; la primera aleatoria, la segunda colocaría las probabilidades en favor de los apostadores. El estudio se hizo sobre cuarenta sorteos de una lotería en Venezuela en el año 2000 y, aun cuando los datos ya son obsoletos respecto de la contabilidad, no lo son respecto del juego, la creencia de los apostadores pervive con datos actuales. Para contrastar esta creencia contra la evidencia empírica, se usaron técnicas estadísticas corrientes aplicadas al modelo del juego y se calcularon las probabilidades a priori y a posteriori de los sorteos, hallando que, paradójicamente, las probabilidades iniciales, estando en favor de los apostadores, el propio mercado las revierte en su contra obligando a la acción colectiva.
 
Publisher Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Argentina.
 
Date 2019-07-31
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
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Identifier https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/CADM/article/view/7951
10.24215/23143738e054
 
Source Ciencias Administrativas; Núm. 15 (2020): Enero - Junio; 054
Ciencias Administrativas; No 15 (2020): Enero - Junio; 054
2314-3738
 
Language spa
 
Relation https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/CADM/article/view/7951/7890
https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/CADM/article/view/7951/8336
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