Deteksi Dini Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue Berdasarkan Faktor Cuaca di DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Metode Zero Truncated Negative Binomial

Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan

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Title Deteksi Dini Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue Berdasarkan Faktor Cuaca di DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Metode Zero Truncated Negative Binomial
 
Creator Kurniawan, Robert
Jaya, Muhammad Lutfi H.D; STIS
Firmansyah, Achmad Fauzi Bagus; STIS
Destyanugraha, Rivan; STIS
Mariyah, Siti; STIS
 
Subject Dengue Fever; Zero Truncated Negative Binomial; DHF; Early Warning System
 
Description AbstractThe incidence rates of DHF in Jakarta in 2010 to 2014 are always higher than that of the national rates. Therefore, this study aims to find the effect of weather parameter on DHF cases. Weather is chosen because it can be observed daily and can be predicted so that it can be used as earlydetection in estimating the number of DHF cases. Data use includes DHF cases which is collected daily and weather data including lowest and highest temperatures and rainfall. Data analysis used is zero-truncated negative binomial analysis at 10% significance level. Based on the periodic dataof selected variables from January 1st 2015 until May 31st 2015, the study revealed that weather factors consisting of highest temperature, lowest temperature, and rainfall rate were significant enough to predict the number of DHF patients in DKI Jakarta. The three variables had positiveeffects in influencing the number of DHF patients in the same period. However, the weather factors cannot be controlled by humans, so that appropriate preventions are required whenever weather’s predictions indicate the increasing number of DHF cases in DKI Jakarta.Keywords: Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, zero truncated negative binomial, early warning.AbstrakAngka kesakitan DBD pada tahun 2010 hingga 2014 selalu lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan angka kesakitan DBD nasional. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari pengaruh faktor cuaca terhadap kasus DBD. Faktor cuaca dipilih karena dapat diamati setiap harinya dan dapat diprediksi sehingga dapat dijadikan deteksi dini dalam perkiraan jumlah penderita DBD. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data jumlah penderita DBD di DKI Jakarta per hari dan data cuaca yang meliputi suhu terendah, suhu tertinggi dan curah hujan. Untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor cuaca tersebut terhadap jumlah penderita DBD di DKI Jakarta digunakan metode analisis zero-truncated negative binomial. Berdasarkan data periode 1 Januari 2015 hingga 31 Mei 2015didapatkan hasil bahwa pada taraf nyata 10% faktor cuaca yang terdiri dari suhu tertinggi, suhu terendah, dan curah hujan signifikan dalam menjelaskan banyaknya penderita DBD di DKI Jakarta. Ketiga variabel tersebut memiliki pengaruh positif dalam mempengaruhi jumlah penderita DBD. Akan tetapi faktor cuaca tersebut tidak bisa dikendalikan oleh manusia, sehingga tindak pencegahan diperlukan jika terindikasi dari prediksi cuaca akan menyebabkan pertambahan jumlah penderitaDBD di DKI Jakarta.Kata kunci: Demam Berdarah Dengue, zero truncated negative binomial , deteksi dini.
 
Publisher Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan
 
Contributor
 
Date 2017-11-17
 
Type
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier http://ejournal.litbang.kemkes.go.id/index.php/BPK/article/view/6355
10.22435/bpk.v45i3.6355.161-168
 
Source Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan; Vol 45, No 3 (2017); 161-168
 
Language en
 
Relation http://ejournal.litbang.kemkes.go.id/index.php/BPK/article/downloadSuppFile/6355/13721
 
Rights The Authors submitting a manuscript do so on the understanding that if accepted for publication, copyright of the article shall be assigned to Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan (Bulletin of Health Research) and Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan (National Institute of Health Research and Development) as publisher of the journal.Copyright encompasses exclusive rights to reproduce and deliver the article in all form and media, including reprints, photographs, microfilms and any other similar reproductions, as well as translations. The reproduction of any part of this journal, its storage in databases and its transmission by any form or media, such as electronic, electrostatic and mechanical copies, photocopies, recordings, magnetic media, etc. , will be allowed only with a written permission from Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan (Bulletin of Health Research) and Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan (National Institute of Health Research and Development).Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan (Bulletin of Health Research) and Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan (National Institute of Health Research and Development), the Editors and the Advisory International Editorial Board make every effort to ensure that no wrong or misleading data, opinions or statements be published in the journal.
 

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