PEMODELAN MULTIVARIATE KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE INDONESIA MELALUI PINTU UDARA, LAUT, DAN DARAT YANG MELIBATKAN DAMPAK WABAH COVID-19

BAREKENG: JURNAL ILMU MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN

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Title PEMODELAN MULTIVARIATE KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA KE INDONESIA MELALUI PINTU UDARA, LAUT, DAN DARAT YANG MELIBATKAN DAMPAK WABAH COVID-19
 
Creator Susila, Muktar Redy
 
Description Abstrak
Salah satu penyumbang pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia adalah sektor pariwisata. Menurut asalnya wisatawan dibagi menjadi dua yaitu wisatawan lokal dan mancanegara. Kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia mengalami fluktuaktif setiap bulannya. Menurut kedatangannya, wisatawan mancanegara yang masuk ke Indonesia melalui jalur udara, laut, dan darat. COVID-19 memberikan dampak terhadap sektor pariwisata. Diduga bahwa COVID-19 mempengaruhi terhadap kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu memodelkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia melalui pintu udara, laut, dan darat dengan melibatkan dampak wabah COVID-19. Model yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu Vector Autoregressive input X (VARX). Hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh bahwa model yang sesuai yaitu VARX (1,2,5,7). Pemilihan model berdasarkan nilai RMSE in sample paling kecil. Nilai RMSE untuk model kunjungan wisatawan melalui pintu udara yaitu sebesar 72,217, pintu laut sebesar 0,175, dan pintu darat sebesar 0,092.
Kata Kunci : Wisatawan, Mancanegara, COVID-19, VARX.
 
Abstract
The tourism sector is one sector of Indonesian economic growth contributor. Tourists are divided into two, namely local and foreign tourists. The number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia has fluctuated every month. Foreign tourists coming to Indonesia by air, sea and land. COVID-19 has an impact on the tourism sector. It is suspected that COVID-19 affects the arrival of foreign tourists. This study examines the modelling of foreign tourist arrivals number to Indonesia by air, sea and land involving the COVID-19 impact. The model used in this study is Vector Autoregressive input X (VARX). The results of this study indicate that the appropriate model is VARX (1,2,5,7). The RMSE in sample is used to determine the appropriate model. The RMSE value for the model of tourist visits through the air gate is 72.217, the sea gate is 0.175, and the land gate is 0.092.
Keywords: Tourists, Foreign, COVID-19, VARX.
 
Publisher MATHEMATIC DEPARTMENT, FACULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND NATURAL SCIENCES, UNIVERSITY OF PATTIMURA
 
Date 2021-09-01
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
 
Identifier https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/3317
10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp467-478
 
Source BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 15 No 3 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; 467-478
2615-3017
1978-7227
10.30598/barekengvol15iss3year2021
 
Language eng
 
Relation https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/3317/3204
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Muktar Redy Susila
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
 

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