Stability Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia

Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan

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Title Stability Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia
ANALISIS STABILITAS CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA
 
Creator Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi
 
Description Research on foreign exchange reserves is still important, because apart from being a source of development funding, foreign exchange reserves are also as tool to prevent economic crises. The analysis of foreign exchange reserves is developed by looking at the influence of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates and foreign debt using the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach. The results show that the independent variable in the model has an effect on foreign exchange reserves in the short term, while in the long term the exchange rate variable has an effect on it. Based on the results of the CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests shows the model is stable. Maintaining economic stability and exchange rate stability is an important agenda for policy makers to create resilient domestic economic conditions in facing crises
Penelitian tentang cadangan devisa sangat penting untuk dikembangkan, karena cadanan devisa selain sebagai sumber pendapatan pembangunan juga sebagai alat untuk dapat menghindari dari krisis ekonomi. Analisis cadangan devisa dikembangkan dengan memilih pengaruh variabel makroekonomi seperti inflasi, kurs dan utang luar negeri dengan pendekatan model Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel independen dalam model berpengaruh terhadap cadangan devisa pada jangka pendek, sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel kurs berpengaruh terhadap cadangan devisa. Berdasarkan hasil uji CUSUM dan CUSUMQ menunjukkan bahwa model stabil. Menjaga stabilitas perekonomian dan stabiltas nilai tukar menjadi agenda penting bagi pemangku kebijakan untuk menciptakan kondisis perekonomian domestik tangguh dalam menghadapi krisis.
 
Publisher Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur
 
Date 2021-09-01
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Identifier http://jdep.upnjatim.ac.id/index.php/jdep/article/view/216
10.33005/jdep.v4i2.216
 
Source Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan; Vol 4 No 2 (2021): JDEP - Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan
2614-2546
10.33005/jdep.v4i2
 
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
 

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