Time-series forecasting models: An application for climatological parameters in the city of Belém, Pará, Brazil

International Journal for Innovation Education and Research

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Title Time-series forecasting models: An application for climatological parameters in the city of Belém, Pará, Brazil
Creator Santos, Douglas Matheus das Neves
Rocha, Yuri Antônio da Silva
Freitas, Danúbia
Beltrão, Paulo
Santos Junior, Paulo
Marques, Glauber
Chase, Otavio
Campos, Pedro
Subject Time Series
Description Statistical and mathematical models of forecasting are of paramount importance for the understanding and study of databases, especially when applied to data of climatological variables, which enables the atmospheric study of a city or region, enabling greater management of the anthropic activities and actions that suffer the direct or indirect influence of meteorological parameters, such as precipitation and temperature. Therefore, this article aimed to analyze the behavior of monthly time series of Average Minimum Temperature, Average Maximum Temperature, Average Compensated Temperature, and Total Precipitation in Belém (Pará, Brazil) on data provided by INMET, for the production and application forecasting models. A 30-year time series was considered for the four variables, from January 1990 to December 2020. The Box and Jenkins methodology was used to determine the statistical models, and during their applications, models of the SARIMA and Holt-Winters class were estimated. For the selection of the models, analyzes of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Autocorrelation Correlogram (ACF), and Partial Autocorrelation (PACF) and tests such as Ljung-Box and Shapiro-Wilk were performed, in addition to Mean Square Error (NDE) and Absolute Percent Error Mean (MPAE) to find the best accuracy in the predictions. It was possible to find three SARIMA models: (0,1,2) (1,1,0) [12], (1,1,1) (0,0,1) [12], (0,1,2) (1,1,0) [12]; and a Holt-Winters model with additive seasonality. Thus, we found forecasts close to the real data for the four-time series worked from the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models, which indicates the feasibility of its applicability in the study of weather forecasting in the city of Belém. However, it is necessary to apply other possible statistical models, which may present more accurate forecasts.
Publisher International Educative Research Foundation Publisher (IERFP)
Date 2021-08-01
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Peer-reviewed Article
Format application/pdf
Identifier https://ijier.net/index.php/ijier/article/view/3239
Source International Journal for Innovation Education and Research; Vol. 9 No. 8 (2021): International Journal for Innovation Education and Research; 24-47
Language eng
Relation https://ijier.net/index.php/ijier/article/view/3239/2232
Rights Copyright (c) 2021 Douglas Matheus das Neves Santos, Yuri Antônio da Silva Rocha, Danúbia Leão de Freitas, Paulo Roberto Estumano Beltrão Júnior, Paulo Cerqueira dos Santos Junior, Glauber Tadaiesky Marques, Otavio Andre Chase, Pedro Silvestre da Silva Campos

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