Multi-Modal Risk Assessment of Slopes

4th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure (CETRA 2016)

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Title Multi-Modal Risk Assessment of Slopes
Creator Cormac Reale; University College Dublin
Kenneth Gavin; University College Dublin
Karlo Martinovic; Gavin & Doherty Geosolutions
Subject reliability analysis; risk assessment; slope stability; engineered slopes; multimodal
Description A significant proportion of European rail networks are built upon earthworks that are over one hundred years old. These earthworks are under increased pressure as they have to contend with heavier and more frequent traffic, far outside the scope of their design. To compound this problem further, recent years have seen unpredictable weather patterns develop with prolonged intense rainstorms commonplace. This has led to increased incidence of slope failures along rail networks, as many aged earthworks struggle to withstand such drastic changes in loading. Marginal engineered slopes fail depending on the triggering mechanism which presents itself first. Therefore the failure surface is intrinsically linked to the applied load i.e. surcharge loading will instigate a different type of landslide than prolonged rainfall. Therefore this paper proposes to analyse marginal slopes probabilistically as a system, where multiple slip circles are considered. A multi-modal optimisation algorithm LIPS (locally informed particle swarm optimisation) is used to locate all significant slip circles. In a slope with multiple potential failure surfaces the consequence of failure is not necessarily the same across the different slip surfaces. This paper addresses this deficit by examining the consequence of the different landslides should they occur. When combined with previously calculated probabilities of failure this will entail amount to a full geotechnical risk assessment of engineered slopes.
Publisher CETRA 2016
Date 2017-02-28 15:20:14
Type Peer-reviewed Paper
Format application/pdf
Source CETRA 2016; 4th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure
Language en
Rights Authors who submit to this conference agree to the following terms:<br /> <strong>a)</strong> Authors retain copyright over their work, while allowing the conference to place this unpublished work under a <a href="">Creative Commons Attribution License</a>, which allows others to freely access, use, and share the work, with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and its initial presentation at this conference. <br /> <strong>b)</strong> Submitted full papers will be published in the book of proceedings "Road and Rail Infrastructure IV" as well as in digital form (on a CD). Conference organiser is allowed to publish author's names, institution and country as well as the paper abstract on the conference web site.

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