Costa Rica: Estimating the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment

Revista de Ciencias Económicas

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Title Costa Rica: Estimating the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
Costa Rica: Estimaciones de la tasa de desempleo que no acelera la inflación
 
Creator Álvarez Corrales, Cristian
Muñoz-Salas, Evelyn
 
Subject NAIRU
UNEMPLOYMENT
INFLATION
PHILLIPS CURVE
AGGREGATE DEMAND
NAIRU
DESEMPLEO
INFLACIÓN
CURVA DE PHILLIPS
DEMANDA AGREGADA
 
Description In this paper we present estimations of the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU for the Costa Rican economy. We highlight the following results: The NAIRU displays an upward trend since the early 90s which was accentuated after the Great Recession when the Costa Rican inflation rate exhibits historically low levels; the estimations of the unemployment gap (the difference between the observed unemployment rate and the NAIRU) indicates that this gap was negative in the nineties and the first half of 2000’s but became positive afterwards. At the second quarter of 2017, the different estimates of the unemployment gap coincide in pointing out that this gap was closed, indicating the absence of aggregate demand pressures. In addition, since 2004, there has been a strengthening in the relationship between inflation and the unemployment gap.
Este documento presenta varias estimaciones de la tasa de desempleo que no acelera la inflación (NAIRU por sus siglas en inglés) para Costa Rica. De los resultados obtenidos, destaca lo siguiente: este indicador muestra una tendencia creciente desde inicios de los noventa, que se acentúa posterior a la Gran Recesión, periodo a partir del cual Costa Rica exhibe tasas de inflación históricamente bajas; las estimaciones de brecha de desempleo (diferencia entre la tasa de desempleo observada y la NAIRU) apuntan a que desde inicios de los noventa y hasta los primeros años de la década de los 2000, esta tiende a ser mayormente negativa, y positiva en adelante. Para el segundo trimestre de 2017, las diferentes estimaciones coinciden en señalar que la brecha de desempleo estaba cerrada, indicando la ausencia de presiones de demanda agregada. Asimismo, a partir del año 2004 se encuentra un fortalecimiento en la relación entre brecha de desempleo e inflación.
 
Publisher Universidad de Costa Rica
 
Date 2019-12-17
 
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
 
Format application/pdf
application/epub+zip
audio/mpeg
 
Identifier https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/40127
10.15517/rce.v37i2.40127
 
Source Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Vol 37 No 2 (2019): Revista de Ciencias Económicas: (July - December); 43-69
Revista de Ciencias Económicas; Vol. 37 Núm. 2 (2019): Revista de Ciencias Económicas: (julio - diciembre); 43-69
2215-3489
0252-9521
 
Language spa
 
Relation https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/40127/40846
https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/40127/40915
https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/40127/40916
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Rights Derechos de autor 2019 Cristian Álvarez Corrales & Evelyn Muñoz-Salas
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cr/
 

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