Relative Average Deviation as Measure of Robustness in the Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem

Revista Facultad de Ingeniería

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Title Relative Average Deviation as Measure of Robustness in the Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem
Desviación relativa promedio como medida de robustez para el problema de programación de proyectos estocástico
Creator Ortiz-Pimiento, Néstor Raúl
Díaz-Serna, Francisco Javier
Subject linear programming
project management
risk analysis
administración de proyectos
análisis de riesgos
programación lineal
Description In the Project Scheduling Problem (PSP), the solution robustness can be understood as the capacity that a baseline has to support the disruptions generated by unplanned events (risks). A robust baseline of the project can be obtained from redundancy based methods, which are considered proactive methods to solve the stochastic project scheduling problem.  In this research, three redundancy based methods are evaluated and their performance is compared in terms of robustness. These methods add extra time to the original activities duration in order to face the eventualities that may appear during the project execution. In this article a new indicator to analyze the solution robustness to the Project Scheduling Problem with random duration of activities is proposed. This indicator called Relative Average Deviation (RAD) is defined as the margin of deviation of the activities’ start times in relation to their durations. The RAD is based in a traditional concept that seeks to minimize the value of the differences between the planned start times and the real executed start times. The planned start times were obtained from the project baseline generated by each redundancy based method and the real executed start times were obtained from a simulation process based on Monte Carlo technique. The new indicator was used to evaluate the robustness of three baselines generated by different methods but applied to the same case study. Finally, the results suggest that the Relative Average Deviation (RAD) facilitates the interpretation of the robustness concept because it focuses on analyzing the deviation margin associated with an activity.
En el problema de programación de proyectos, la robustez de una solución puede entenderse como la capacidad que posee una línea-base para soportar las disrupciones generadas por eventos no planeados (riesgos). Una linea-base robusta de un proyecto puede ser obtenida a partir de métodos basados en redundancia, los cuales son considerados métodos proactivos, que permiten resolver el problema de programación estocástica de proyectos. En esta investigación son evaluados tres métodos basados en redundancia y su desempeño es comparado en términos de robustez. Estos métodos adicionan tiempo extra a la duración original de las actividades, con el fin de enfrentar las eventualidades que pueden aparecer durante la ejecución del proyecto. En este artículo se propone un indicador, denominado desviación media relativa (RAD, por su sigla en inglés), el cual permite analizar la robustez de las soluciones obtenidas para el Project Scheduling Problem (PSP), con duración aleatoria de actividades. La desviación media relativa (RAD) se define como el margen de desviación de los tiempos de inicio de las actividades de un proyecto, con relación a sus duraciones. La RAD está basada en el concepto tradicinal que busca minimizar la diferencia entre los tiempos de inicio planeados y los tiempos de inicio realmente ejecutados. Los tiempos de inicio planeados fueron obtenidos a partir de la línea-base generada para el proyecto, y los tiempos de inicio realmente ejecutados fueron obtenidos a partir de un proceso de simulación basado en la técnica de Monte Carlo. El nuevo indicador fue utilizado para evaluar la robustez de tres líneas-base generadas por diferentes métodos, pero aplicados a un mismo caso de estudio. Al final pudo concluirse que la desviación media relativa (RAD) facilita la interpretación del concepto de robustez, debido a que se focaliza en analizar el margen de desviación por actividad en cada línea-base.
Publisher Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia
Date 2019-06-25
Type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Format application/pdf
Source Revista Facultad de Ingeniería; Vol 28 No 52 (2019); 77-97
Revista Facultad de Ingeniería; Vol. 28 Núm. 52 (2019); 77-97
Language eng
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