Production planning of energy systems:

AU Library Scholarly Publishing Services - Ebooks

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Field Value
 
Title Production planning of energy systems:
 
Creator Dahl, Magnus
 
Subject District heating
Energy systems
Production planning
Load forecasting
Decision support
 
Description This dissertation is a collection of research articles that assess economic andoperational risk in production planning of district heating. District heatingsystems are typically coupled to the electricity system through cogenerationand power-to-heat technologies, and production planners must account foruncertainty stemming from changing weather, demands and prices. Years ofhigh-resolution data from the district heating system in Aarhus, Denmark havebeen used throughout the project to model the system and estimate uncertainties.Risk management tools have been developed to aid district heating operatorsand investment decision makers in short-, medium- and long-term productionplanning.Short-term production planning involves commitment of production unitsand trading on the electricity markets and relies on forecasts of the heat load.Weather predictions are a significant source of uncertainty for heat load forecasts,because the heat load is highly weather-dependent. I introduce the method ofensemble weather predictions from meteorology to heat load forecasting andcreate a probabilistic load forecast to estimate the weather-based uncertainty.Better estimates of the weather-based uncertainty can be applied to optimizesupply temperature control and reduce heat losses without compromising securityof supply in heat distribution systems.Consumer behavior is another substantial, but difficult to capture, source ofuncertainty in short-term heat load forecasts. I include local holiday data instate-of-the-art load forecasts to improve accuracy and capture how load patternschange depending on the behavior of the consumers. A small overall improvementin forecast accuracy is observed. The improvement is more significant on holidaysand special occasions that are difficult to forecast accurately.In medium-term production planning, there can be substantial economicpotential in performing summer shutdown of certain production units. Theshutdown decision carries significant risk, due to changing seasonal weatherpatterns. Based on 38 years of weather data, the uncertainty on the timing ofthe optimal decision is estimated. This information is used to develop practicaldecision rules that are robust to rare weather events and capable of realizingmore than 90% of the potential savings from summer shutdown.Long-term production planning decisions regarding investments in futuredistrict heating production systems are affected by uncertainty from changingelectricity prices, fuel prices and investment cost for technology. The effects ofthese uncertainties on a cost-optimal heat production system are explored, usingwell-established production and storage technologies and extensive multivariatesensitivity analysis. The optimal technology choices are highly stable and,taxes aside, large heat pumps and heat storages dominate the cost-optimal heatproduction systems. However, the uncertainty on the exact capacity allocationis substantial. Excluding heat production based on fossil fuels increases theuncertainty on the system cost, but drastically reduces the uncertainty on theoptimal capacity allocation.
 
Publisher AU Library Scholarly Publishing Services
 
Date 2018-08-14
 
Type Book
text
 
Format Digital (DA)
 
Identifier https://ebooks.au.dk/aul/catalog/book/270
10.7146/aul.270.188
978-87-7507-422-8
 
Source AU Library Scholarly Publishing Services;
 

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